The fairytale of Monaghan reaching an All-Ireland final can be rather seductive.

Five years ago, they came agonisingly close only to be pipped by Tyrone and a late Niall Sludden goal on an afternoon in which they were terribly unlucky.

Vinny Corey led the team from centre-back that day; this evening he’ll be at the front of the bus as manager of a side looking to go one better.

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There is no doubt that his team is defiant; they love a battle and revel in the underdog story. They may feel patronised by talk of how they punch above their weight but being as consistently competitive as they have been for so long is very impressive for a county of their size.

Play them at their own game, as Armagh did, and you will suffer.

If Corey masterminded a victory against Dublin it would be one of the greatest stories in the GAA’s history.

But when you snap out of romantic mode and deal in cold, hard facts, the reality is that this Dublin team is far superior and the only narrative that they’ll be buying into is the one that involves them returning to the All-Ireland final.

Everything seems to be falling into place for Dessie Farrell. The return of Stephen Cluxton now looks a masterstroke; players like Eoin Murchan, Davy Byrne and Jack McCaffrey are fit again; Brian Fenton and Brian Howard have come back into form and their spiritual leader James McCarthy looks back to his best.

Up front, they can afford to leave players like Ciaran Kilkenny, Dean Rock and Paddy Small on the bench.

The experience throughout that squad makes an ambush from Monaghan almost impossible to envisage.

What Monaghan need to do is play with intensity. If they just simply drop 14 players back inside their 45, then Dublin will be very comfortable and will probe until, eventually, the gaps appear.

Monaghan need to push out and be aggressive - pressurise Dublin, make it into a war.

They also need to score goals but, due to their style of play, they don’t create a huge amount of chances. They have only scored two in their five All-Ireland series games, both from wing-back Conor McCarthy.

Could they use Gary Mohan as a focal point close to goal to add depth to their attack, especially on the counter-attack? Mayo caused issues for Dublin’s full-back line when they were direct in the first half.

But Dublin always seem to find a way. You can be sure that they will target McCarthy and I will be shocked if he is afforded the space he has been given of late.

If Jack McCarron starts then Murchan, if fit, will employ attack as the best form of defence and target defensive weaknesses in McCarron’s game.

I’ll be interested as to whether Dublin push up on Rory Beggan’s kickout. Mayo were getting scores off long, direct restarts until Dublin dropped off in the second half and conceded most of the kickouts, forcing Mayo to carry the ball which nullified their threat from the long ball.

If Monaghan can stay in this game until Conor McManus gets on the pitch then what a boost his arrival would give them, but my big fear - and I really hope I am wrong - is that the game will be already out of their reach by then.

Kerry nous will see them through a dour struggle

The big question for me is whether Ciaran Meenagh and his backroom team believe that the system of play that Derry have developed over the last two years is enough to beat the All-Ireland champions.

Or are they going to tweak things slightly to try and catch Kerry cold?

I believe that their system is good enough to beat the vast majority of teams, but I don’t think it’s sufficient to beat Dublin or Kerry.

I think they need to add pace to their attacks if they really are to trouble Kerry. Each attack was incredibly slow and methodical against Cork, with no swift transitions.

Instead, they moved the ball through the hands, allowing all 15 of their players to move into an attacking position inside the opposition’s 65. Kerry will be quite comfortable with this.

They also need to score goals to win this and because of the lack of risk and, in particular, kicking in their game, they don’t generate a huge amount of goal-scoring chances.

I highlighted here last week how they only kicked the ball twice into their forwards last time out against Cork. That predictability in their play won’t get them the 18-plus scores needed to win this game.

Jack O’Connor spoke this week about how he is not expecting a classic. I don’t think any of us are.

He knows his team will have to be patient on the ball but, unlike Derry, they will still take risks.

I can’t wait to see if Kerry leave David Clifford and Sean O’Shea high up the pitch while Derry are attacking and, if they do, will the Derry defenders and Odhran Lynch be brave enough to leave them?

From a Derry point of view, the big match-up will be Chrissy McKaigue on David Clifford. McKaigue has been an outstanding man-marker over the years but I don’t think he has looked quite the same player this year.

In the Ulster quarter-final, Ultan Helm got serious joy from him and again Oisin Gallen dominated their battle in the group stage game. Clifford will expose any weakness that may be there.

All signs are pointing to a dour struggle but whatever way this plays out, Kerry are too strong.

Formguide points to a Down victory in Tailteann Cup

The Tailteann Cup has probably failed to attract the same interest among the general public as last year.

That is probably down to the new Championship format as with the sheer amount of games, it has been lost in the middle of it all.

For the players of Down and Meath, however, this is a big game.

While Conor Laverty will be disappointed with not securing promotion to Division Two, he will be delighted with how his team has progressed this year. The quarter-final win against Cavan was a real statement win for them.

Colm O’Rourke has travelled a rockier road in his first year in charge of Meath. They badly needed a run in this competition and a win here could really save their season.

But I think Down’s form all year has been more consistent and impressive and I expect them to win.